Uncertainty in Observational Estimates of the Aerosol Direct Radiative Effect and Forcing

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract A lower bound on the uncertainty in observational estimates of aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE; interaction with solar radiation by all aerosols) and forcing [DRF; just anthropogenic aerosols (RF ari )] is quantified making optimistic assumption that global observations can be made accuracy found Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun photometer retrievals. The global-mean all-sky DRE was to 1.1 W m ?2 (one standard deviation). DRF ) determined 0.31 . total both quantities dominated contributions from single scattering albedo uncertainty. These were compared a literature survey mostly satellite-based DRE/DRF values. Comparisons previous studies reveal most have significantly underestimated Past are smaller (on average) than our estimates, including given Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). This disconnect between observation-based past rely, at least part, modeling discussed. Also potential reduction current possible future generation satellite would leverage typing more refined vertical information.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Climate

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['1520-0442', '0894-8755']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-1009.1